Health threats for the remainder of the 21st century identified, 7 days in healthcare (October, 12th-18th, 2026)

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Summary

News of the week:

  • A report in *The Lancet* identifies health threats for the remainder of the 21st century.

The most impactful healthcare news of the week:

  • Biomedicine: Five-year survival rates for virtually all types of cancer have improved significantly in recent years.
  • Global health: AI-enabled biological weapons—a widespread existential threat.
  • International health policy: Europe promotes cancer screening.
  • National health policy: A healthcare system strained by conflict heads into general elections, desperate for solutions.
  • Business: The pharmaceutical sector goes on a shopping spree—mergers and acquisitions (M&A) reach $116 billion.

Biomedicine

  • Major cancer success stories over the last 50 years: A report by the American Association for Cancer Research identifies significant improvements in the U.S. across nearly all cancer types when comparing patients diagnosed between 2016–2022 to those diagnosed between 1975–1979. Currently, 71% of people diagnosed with cancer survive for more than five years, compared to 49% in the 1970s. Survival rates have seen the greatest increases for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and myeloma, while there has been no change for cervical cancer.
  • AI will enable the design and construction of organisms from scratch. The advent of synthetic biology will allow for the creation of not only new medicines but also modified versions of existing organisms.
  • Putting AI to work in medicine: In its October 14, 2026, issue, *Nature Medicine* explores the challenges and lessons learned from the expansion of AI in the medical field. Despite this growth, a certain degree of “hype” still persists. •Can we imagine a future where a shortage of organs is no longer an obstacle to transplantation? Statements from the director of the ONT (Spanish National Transplant Organization). In 2025, more than 183,000 organ transplants were performed worldwide—the highest figure ever recorded. While this is an extraordinary achievement, it falls far short of meeting a demand that the World Health Organization estimates at 2 million procedures annually. New possibilities are emerging through xenotransplantation (using animal organs) or the generation of organs from the recipient’s own totipotent cells.

Global Health

  • AI-powered biological weapons: a widespread existential threat. The risk of bioterrorism is real.
  • Bangladesh is battling a measles outbreak—a stark warning for other nations. Although the measles vaccination program had been a success, setbacks in 2025 are now causing significant issues.

International Health Policy

  • Europe promotes at-home cancer screening. Sending screening tests directly to people’s homes increases participation, while new models are exploring the role of pharmacies in making these screenings more accessible to the public.
  • The NIH hospital committee voted unanimously against Kennedy, citing his tendency to downplay and politicize hospital operations.
  • Europe seeks to shield databases—essential for global biomedical research—from U.S. influence.
  • Trump’s pricing policy threatens to disrupt pharmaceutical financing in Europe. A report published by Funcas, authored by Jaume Puig-Junoy, analyzes the potential consequences of U.S. measures regarding drug pricing and patient access to medications.

National Health Policy (Spain)

  • A healthcare system strained by conflict approaches the general election in desperate need of solutions. Strikes, political clashes, and a workforce pushed to the limit have left the healthcare system with deep-seated, unresolved grievances. •Catalonia has unveiled its Health Plan through 2035, featuring 135 measures and 50 objectives—including increasing healthy life expectancy from the current 68 years to 70, and reducing preventable mortality by 15%.
  • The Strike Committee has announced a major demonstration in Madrid for November 21. Following the decision to postpone other planned mobilizations, the unions CESM, SMA, and SME have called for a march from the Ministry of Health to the Congress of Deputies.
  • Changes at Farmaindustria: a look at the issues addressed during Fina Lladós’s presidency and the challenges awaiting her successor, López-Belmonte. At the national level, the government had pursued three major regulatory initiatives this year aimed at modernizing the pharmaceutical policy of the National Health System (SNS): the draft Law on Medicines and Medical Devices, the Royal Decree on Health Technology Assessment (HTA), and the draft Royal Decree on the Pricing and Financing of Medicines. Of these three, only the Royal Decree on Health Technology Assessment has been approved.
  • • Health technology requires the future government to prioritize quality in 50% of public contracts. Fenin calls for modifying the Contract Law, promoting an industrialization plan and reducing VAT on health products.

Companies

  • International

o The pharmaceutical sector goes shopping: M&A operations, purchasing operations reach 116,000 million with Lilly as the protagonist. 2026 is close to becoming the best year for mergers and acquisitions, possibly surpassing that of the pandemic.

  • National

o This will be the new hospital that will open in Madrid, in Boadilla and Hospitén. It will do so in November and will have 158 hospital rooms, 17 operating rooms, 21 ICU beds, 30 emergency rooms and 80 outpatient clinics.

o Layoffs in the pharmaceutical industry: Takeda restructures its workforce and AstraZeneca begins an ERE.

Biomedicine

  • The health threats of the 21st century are not what you think. The report published by The Lancet led by Christopher Murray compares health threats (in terms of disability adjusted years, DALYs) between 2025 and 2010. Apart from extinction due to nuclear war or the malicious use of AI, it considers the most serious threats to be obesity, low educational attainment, income inequality, poor mental health, unhealthy aging, conventional conflicts and tobacco. (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)01989-6/fulltext)
  • Rethinking threats to human health. The Lancet commission worked with 37 experts who identified 17 fundamental threats (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)01958-6/fulltext)
  • The Lancet Commission on 21st century health threats. The full report (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)01714-9/fulltext)
  • The top success stories in cancer in the last 50 years. A report from the American Association for Cancer Research identifies significant improvements in practically all cancers in the USA between those diagnosed between 2016 and 2022 and those diagnosed between 1975 and 1979. 71% of people diagnosed with cancer today will live more than five years, compared to 49% in the 1970s. Chronic lymphoid leukemia and myeloma, among which survival has increased the most, while there are no differences in cervical cancer (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-03157-1)
  • AI will make it possible to design and build organisms from scratch. Synthetic biology is coming, which will allow not only new drugs, but modified versions of existing organisms (https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/10/14/ai-will-make-it-possible-to-design-and-build-organisms-from-scratch)
  • Make AI work in medicine. On October 14, 2026, Nature Medicine dedicates an entire issue to exploring the challenges and lessons learned from the expansion of AI in medicine. Despite its expansion, there is still a certain “hype” (hyper-selling) (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-026-04726-7)
  • Can we imagine a future in which organ limitations are not an obstacle to transplantation? Statements from the director of the ONT. In 2025, more than 183,000 organ transplants were performed worldwide, the highest number recorded to date. It is an extraordinary achievement, but it falls far short of meeting a demand that the World Health Organization estimates at 2 million procedures annually. There are new possibilities with xenotransplantation (using animal organs) or the generation of organs from the recipient’s own totipotent cells (https://forbes.es/health/liderazgo-health/tribuna-liderazgo-health/1046569/futuro-del-trasplante-organos/)
  • Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, depression: what if the origin of certain brain diseases were found in the microbiota? The Pasteur Institute presents its work relating the microbiota to the brain (https://sante.lefigaro.fr/medecine/alzheimer-parkinson-depression-et-si-l-origine-de-certaines-maladies-du-cerveau-se-trouvait-dans-notre-microbiote-20261017)
  • Freezing testicular tissue before chemotherapy: the advance that could allow having children years later (https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2026/10/08/6ac67892fc6c83f5428b45c3.html)
  • Mammography that looks to the future: an AI predicts the risk of breast cancer in five years. The new artificial intelligence (AI) systems are capable of analyzing a scan interpreted as normal or benign and calculating the probability that the woman will develop breast cancer during the following five years (https://www.diariomedico.com/medicina/oncologia-radioterapica/mamografia-mira-futuro-ia-anticipa-riesgo-cancer-mama-cinco-anos.html)

Global Health

  • AI-enabled biological weapons: a widespread existential threat. The risk of bioterrorism is real (https://www.bmj.com/content/395/bmj-2026-101161)
  • AI-enabled biological weapons—how real is the threat? Biosecurity threats are growing globally, according to experts (https://www.bmj.com/content/395/bmj-2026-101086)
  • If the EU wants to be serious about “One Health,” it must put an end to fur farming. This industry appears to facilitate the spread of pathogens (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(26)00260-7/fulltext)
  • Bangladesh is battling a measles outbreak—a stark warning for other nations. While the country’s measles vaccination program had been a success, setbacks in 2025 are now causing significant issues (https://www.reuters.com/world/bangladesh-is-battling-measles-its-real-warning-other-nations-2026-10-17/)

International Health Policy

  • USA

o              The NIH hospital board voted unanimously against Kennedy for downplaying and politicizing hospital operations (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/16/us/politics/kennedy-nih-hospital-board-rebuke.html)

o              Trump has failed to lower drug prices for many patients lacking health insurance coverage (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/16/business/midterms-election-trump-drug-prices-affordability.html)

o              The U.S. is cutting subsidies for 189,000 individuals who have duplicate health coverage (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-government-cuts-subsidies-189000-obamacare-enrollees-2026-10-14/)

  • Russia

o              According to the WHO, the risk of an epidemic following the death of a laboratory worker from plague in Russia is low (https://www.bmj.com/content/395/bmj-2026-101084?nbd_source=adestra&nbd=8fbb67008476fb2494c9dc673c1a59b833545ade97e59cd7efd9c117443308b8&uaa_id=8fbb67008476fb2494c9dc673c1a59b833545ade97e59cd7efd9c117443308b8&utm_campaign=This%20week%20in%20The%20BMJ%20-%20Fortnightly%20manual%20alert&utm_medium=email&utm_source=adestra)

  • United Kingdom

o              Burnham’s new social care plan: does it go far and fast enough? The Nuffield Trust analyzes the Prime Minister’s announcements (https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/burnham-s-new-social-care-workforce-plans-do-they-go-far-and-fast-enough)

  • France

o              Comprehensive legislation: the delicate definition of obstetric and gynecological violence. A proposed bill addresses violence in the field of gynecology (https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2026/10/11/loi-integrale-la-delicate-definition-des-violences-obstetricales-et-gynecologiques_6791854_3224.html)

  • Brazil

o              Healthcare in the Brazilian elections. The first round of voting did not produce a definitive winner between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro, as neither candidate reached 50% of the vote. Their healthcare platforms are similar; both promise to eliminate waiting lists and improve access to specialists. However, the legacy of Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency is viewed very negatively in terms of healthcare—particularly regarding the management of the COVID-19 pandemic (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(26)02084-2/fulltext).

  • European Union

o              Europe sets specific timelines for the implementation of its pharmaceutical reform. The official publication of the EU Council’s position on the pharmaceutical directive triggers a schedule that allows 30 months to assess the environmental risk of drugs approved before 2005, and 18 months to roll out electronic patient information leaflets (https://diariofarma.com/2026/10/16/europa-concreta-los-plazos-para-la-entrada-en-vigor-de-la-reforma-farmaceutica).

o              Europe promotes at-home cancer screening. Sending screening tests directly to people’s homes increases participation, while new models are exploring the role that pharmacies can play in making these screenings more accessible to the public (https://www.consalud.es/pacientes/europa-impulsa-por-el-cribado-del-cancer-en-casa-el-automuestreo-eleva-la-participacion.html).

o              How to approve a drug in 100 days: Europe demonstrates its international competitiveness by accelerating its review processes. The EMA typically takes nearly a year to complete an evaluation. Phased review aims to shorten timelines and improve access (https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/observatorios/sanidad/20261017/aprobar-farmaco-dias-europa-demuestra-competitividad-internacional-acelerando-revisiones/1003744422989_0.html)

o              Europe gives the green light to a daily pill that increases life expectancy for patients with pancreatic cancer. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommends marketing authorization for Rasonque (daraxonrasib), a drug designed to curb metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2026/10/15/6ad0f33d21efa0d8708b45b7.html)

o              Europe seeks to safeguard databases essential for global biomedical research against U.S. influence (https://elpais.com/ciencia/2026-10-06/europa-intenta-blindar-frente-a-estados-unidos-las-bases-de-datos-esenciales-para-la-investigacion-biomedica-mundial.html)

o              Trump’s pricing policy threatens to disrupt pharmaceutical funding in Europe. A report published by Funcas, authored by Jaume Puig-Junoy, analyzes the potential consequences of U.S. measures regarding drug pricing and patient access to medications (https://www.consalud.es/salud35/internacional/la-politica-de-precios-de-trump-amenaza-con-alterar-la-financiacion-farmaceutica-en-europa.html)

National Healthcare Policy

  • General Elections, November 29

o              A healthcare system, worn down by conflict, approaches the general elections in desperate need of solutions. Strikes, political clashes, and professionals pushed to their limits have left a healthcare system with unresolved, pressing grievances (https://gacetamedica.com/politica/sistema-sanitario-quemado-conflicto-elecciones-generales-soluciones/)

  • Central Administration

o              Mónica García’s failure: the end of the *Estatuto Marco* (Framework Statute). Following the call for general elections, the next administration will have to decide whether or not to revisit the proposed *Estatuto Marco* legislation—a bill that sparked outrage among physicians and has remained unchanged for 23 years (https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2026/10/13/6ac8f444e9cf4ab1168b457b.html)

o              The Interterritorial Council fractures during the pre-election period: regions governed by the PP (People’s Party) boycotted an October 14 online meeting regarding abortion. Only the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarre, Castilla-La Mancha, Asturias, and the Canary Islands participated in the session (https://gacetamedica.com/politica/interterritorial-parte-precampana-ccaa-pp-garcia-reunion-correo-electronico-aborto/)

  • Regional Administrations

o              Andalusia, Catalonia, Castile and León, and the Canary Islands are already providing therapy for “butterfly skin” (epidermolysis bullosa)—a treatment that the national Ministry of Health has declined to fund. Aragon and the Balearic Islands have also begun the process to join them (https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/observatorios/sanidad/20261013/andalucia-cataluna-castilla-leon-canarias-ofrecen-terapia-piel-mariposa-sanidad-rechaza-financiar/1003744415811_0.html)

o              Catalonia has presented its Health Plan through 2035, featuring 135 measures and 50 objectives—including increasing healthy life expectancy from the current 68 years to 70, and reducing preventable mortality by 15% (https://medicinaresponsable.com/politica-sanitaria/cataluna-plan-salud-2035-objetivos-aumentar-esperanza-vida-reducir-tabaquismo)

  • Conflict regarding the medical “Framework Statute” (Estatuto Marco)

o              Framework Statute: the major disagreements that led to the collapse of the draft proposal. What began with the initial aim of updating the basic regulations—in place since 2003—gradually evolved into a complex, multi-level stalemate involving the Ministry of Health, the autonomous communities, medical unions, and the labor organizations represented in the formal negotiation forum (https://gacetamedica.com/profesion/estatuto-marco-grandes-desacuerdos-abocaron-colapso-anteproyecto/)

o              The Strike Committee has announced a major demonstration to be held on November 21 in Madrid. Following the announcement that planned mobilizations have been postponed, CESM, SMA, and SME have called for a march from the Ministry of Health to the Congress of Deputies (https://www.diariomedico.com/medicina/profesion/comite-huelga-anuncia-gran-manifestacion-21-noviembre-madrid.html)

o              The complex situation regarding medical strikes: where they are still going ahead (https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/observatorios/sanidad/20261015/lio-huelgas-medicas-espana-comunidades-suspendido-mantienen-dias/1003744420353_0.html)

o              Doctors in Madrid take a stand against Ayuso, announcing strikes for October, November, and December (https://elpais.com/espana/madrid/2026-10-14/los-medicos-de-madrid-tambien-plantan-cara-a-ayuso-y-anuncian-que-iran-a-la-huelga-en-noviembre-y-diciembre.html)

  • Crisis in Ceuta

o              Doctors in Ceuta take their healthcare crisis to Europe (https://www.consalud.es/autonomias/los-medicos-de-ceuta-llevan-su-crisis-sanitaria-a-europa-queremos-despertar-de-esta-pesadilla.html)

  • Medical cannabis

o              Medicinal cannabis arrives in hospitals (https://elpais.com/sociedad/2026-10-17/llega-a-los-hospitales-el-cannabis-medicinal-por-fin-dejamos-de-estar-en-manos-de-los-narcos.html)

  • Farmaindustria

o              Key issues addressed during Fina Lladós’s presidency and the challenges that López-Belmonte will face. At the national level, the Government had advanced three major regulatory initiatives this year aimed at modernizing the pharmaceutical policy of the National Health System (SNS): the Draft Law on Medicines and Medical Devices, the Royal Decree on Health Technology Assessment (HTA), and the draft Royal Decree on the Pricing and Financing of Medicines. Of the three, only the Royal Decree on Health Technology Assessment has been approved (https://elglobalfarma.com/industria/presidencia-llados-encontrara-lopez-belmonte-farmaindustria/)

Companies

  • International

o              Nvidia to acquire an equity stake in Doctolib, aiming to spearhead an AI revolution in Europe (https://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2026/10/13/ia-l-entreprise-americaine-nvidia-entre-au-capital-du-francais-doctolib-en-tant-qu-actionnaire-minoritaire_6793162_4408996.html)

o              Lilly’s weight-loss pill gains support from European regulators (https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/eli-lillys-weight-loss-pill-wins-backing-europe-2026-10-16/)

o              GSK plans to cut 1,217 jobs in Belgium (https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/gsk-cut-up-1217-jobs-belgium-lecho-says-2026-10-14/)

o              Roche secures a licensing deal for a weight-loss drug from China’s Rona Therapeutics, valued at $1.6 billion (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/roche-strikes-obesity-drug-licensing-deal-worth-up-116-bln-with-chinese-rona-2026-10-13/)

o              The pharmaceutical sector goes on a shopping spree: M&A activity reaches $116 billion, with Lilly playing a leading role. 2026 is on track to become the best year for mergers and acquisitions, potentially surpassing the levels seen during the pandemic (https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/observatorios/sanidad/20261012/sector-farmaceutico-sale-compras-operaciones-mampa-suman-lilly-protagonista/1003744415093_0.html)

  • Domestic

o              Miranza acquires a clinic in Lisbon (https://forbes.es/health/1044008/miranza-adquiere-clinica-en-lisboa/)

o              AstraZeneca proposes cutting over 200 jobs in Spain for organizational reasons (https://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2026-10-14/astrazeneca-planea-despidos-espana-causas-organizativas_4444169/)

o              Layoffs in the pharmaceutical industry: Takeda restructures its workforce, and AstraZeneca initiates a collective redundancy procedure (ERE) (https://www.elespanol.com/invertia/observatorios/sanidad/20261015/despidos-industria-farmaceutica-espana-takeda-reestructura-plantilla-astrazeneca-inicia-ere/1003744419676_0.html)

o              Rovi faces the patent expiry of its third best-selling drug (https://www.eleconomista.es/salud-bienestar/noticias/14021472/10/26/rovi-afronta-el-vencimiento-de-su-tercer-medicamento-con-mayores-ventas.html)

o              Details on the new hospital to be opened in Boadilla, Madrid, by Hospitén. It will open in November and will feature 158 inpatient rooms, 17 operating rooms, 21 ICU beds, 30 emergency care bays, and 80 outpatient consultation rooms (https://www.eleconomista.es/branded-content/noticias/14020034/10/26/asi-sera-el-nuevo-hospital-que-abrira-en-madrid-innovacion-eficiencia-y-cuidado-de-calidad.html)

o              The manufacturer of a generic anti-obesity medication (Galenicum) has quadrupled its value; its portfolio includes a generic version of Ozempic (https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2026-10-15/las-claves-el-enfoque-biomedico-contra-la-obesidad-cuadruplica-el-valor-de-galenicum.html)

o              Longevity medicine is expanding within private healthcare. Clinical practice focused on prevention is growing, with new centers and specialized units opening in hospitals. The goal is to reach old age with vitality, autonomy, and good health (https://cincodias.elpais.com/extras/ciencia-salud/2026-10-17/la-medicina-de-longevidad-se-extiende-en-la-atencion-medica-privada.html)